Total and regional runoff to the Baltic Sea

	Author: Bertil Håkansson, SMHI

Key message

During the last 7 years the total inflow has decreased from a top flow rate of more than 16000 in 1998 to less than 11000 m³/s in 2003.  This is an extremely low runoff exceeded only in 1942, 1947 and 1976. The runoff during 2003 to the Bothnian Sea was the lowest since 1921. The total runoff to the Baltic Sea in 2004 was close to the long term mean value.

The annual fresh water inflows to the Baltic Sea are 14200 m³/s.  During the period 1950 - 2004 total runoff to the Baltic Sea area show no long-term trends. On the other hand this time period is characterised by dry and wet periods lasting for a couple of years to a decade by and large following the NAO index. From a regional point of view the runoff enters the Gulf of Bothnia (6000 m³/s), the Gulf of Finland and the Baltic Proper (3500 m³/s) and to a lesser extent in Gulf of Riga and in Kattegat (1000 m³/s) on average.

Results and Assessment

Runoff is a quantitative background indicator on the freshwater discharge, carrying the nutrients from the drainage areas to the coast.

Runoff is an important parameter on the change of pressure on nutrient supply due to varying climate and climate change. Also change in land-use can influence runoff. To evaluate the change of pressure on nutrient supply to the Baltic region it is necessary to know the variability of runoff and normalise for this natural variability.

The indicator shows the annual runoff from drainage areas but integrated over the Baltic sub-regions. Runoff is governed by the precipitation - evaporation on land areas and is also influenced by air temperature. It is the sum of direct river and diffusive runoff. In all sub-regions a strong seasonal, annual and decadal variability can be distinguished. Especially wet and dry periods are characterising the runoff. The 1970s were a fairly dry period compared with the 1980s and the later part of the 1990s. Geographically, the runoff is of about the same size in the Gulf of Bothnia, Gulf of Finland and the Baltic Proper, whereas the Gulf of Riga and the Kattegat contributes to a lesser extent to the total runoff.

Figure 1: Runoff from years 1950 - 2004 to the Baltic sub basins based on annual mean values. Click image to enlarge.

Figure 2: Total runoff deviation and NAO-index during years 1950 - 2004 to the Baltic Sea based on winter mean values of the NAO index. Positive index indicates stronger westerly winds bringing warmer and wetter winters to Scandinavia.

Assessment

There is no obvious trend in the annual runoff during the last 50 years, neither in the total nor from sub-regions. The dry period found during the 1970s could have masked the marine eutrophication since the runoff was lower than average and hence also the total load of nutrients. During the wet periods the total nutrient load (pressure) increased making marine eutrophication (effects) even worse.

During the last 5 years runoff has fallen from a high to a very low annual value, which should lead to a slight increase in surface layer salinity and a lower nitrogen concentration in the Baltic Sea sub basins. The most dramatic decrease took place in the runoff to the Gulf of Bothnia and to the Gulf of Finland. A decrease in runoff only took place during 2003 in the Gulf of Riga and the Baltic Proper. 2004 was a year with runoff close to normal values i.e 14200 m³/s.

References

Bergström, S. And B. Carlsson 1994. River runoff to the Baltic Sea 1950 - 1990. AMBIO Vol. 23, No. 4-5, 280 - 287.

Graham, Phil 1999. Modelling runoff to the Baltic Sea. AMBIO Vol. 28, No. 4, 328-334.

http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/jhurrell/indices.data.html#naostatdjfm

Data

Observations are collected at the BALTEX Hydrological Data Centre (http://www.smhi.se/sgn0102/bhdc/bhdc.htm), whereas modelled data is done at SMHI using the HBV-model (Graham-99). Gulf of Riga runoff is based observations up through 2001,while simulations are used for 2002. Gulf of Finland runoff is based on observations up through 1997, while simulations are used for 1998-2002. Baltic Proper runoff is based on observations up through 1996, while simulations are used for 1997-2003. For 2004 all data is based on model simulations carried out by Dr. Phil Graham, SMHI.

For reference purposes, please cite this indicator fact sheet as follows:

[Author’s name(s)], [Year]. [Indicator Fact Sheet title]. HELCOM Indicator Fact Sheets 2005. Online. [Date Viewed], http://www.helcom.fi/environment2/ifs/en_GB/cover/.
 

Last updated 25.11.2005.