Fulfilment of Nutrient Input Ceilings

The evaluation of progress towards nutrient input ceilings is based on statistically estimated normalized annual inputs of nitrogen and phosphorus in 2014. The ceilings are set for nutrient inputs from every HELCOM and non-HELCOM country, and other contributors to each sub-basin of the Baltic Sea (Calculation of nutrient input ceilings). The input values in 2014 are computed for all HELCOM and non-HELCOM countries in the Baltic Sea catchment area, for ship traffic in the Baltic and North Seas and for other contributors. The nutrient input values used for the assessment (test values) are calculated as the sum of trend estimated input in 2014 and the statistical uncertainty of its estimation.

The estimation of the nutrient inputs utilizes linear regression over the whole available time series from 1995 to 2014. In case where a defined change in the linear trend is detected the regression of only the latter part of the trend is used for estimation. In case, when no statistically significant trend in input time series is detected, an average value of the time series is used to estimate input in 2014. (Detailed description of the statistical method will be given in the PLC-6 scientific report. Publication is expected by the end of 2018).


CART assessment data TN 2014.pdf


CART assessment data TP 2014.pdf