Data: Fulfillment of nutrient input ceilings

The evaluation of fulfilment of CART and the "reduction remaining" is based on a statistical test using the whole time series 1995-2012 to estimate the inputs in 2012 and the uncertainty on the estimate. The overall evaluation is done by the following steps:

  • Using total annual net waterborne + airborne inputs of  nitrogen and phosphorus, respectively from 1995-2012 country by basin to determine trend in the time series
  • Based on the time series a statistical estimate for net input of nitrogen and phosphorus in 2012 country by sub-basin is calculated
  • If there is a significant trend:
    • Calculate the uncertainty of the 2012 net input nitrogen and phosphorus estimate
    • Test 1: Is the last year (2012) of the trend-line below the ceiling with high (>95 %) statistical certainty? If no then red color in table 1a and 1 b in "Key message". If yes:
    • Test 2: Is the last year + uncertainty (variation) below the ceiling with high (>95 %) statistical certainty? If yes then green in table 1a and 1b, if no than yellow in table 1a and 1 b in "Key message"
  • If there is no significant trend for the 1995-2012 time series of net annual nitrogen or phosphorus inputs an adjusted mean is calculated as the mean of all values in the time series and used as the statistical estimated 2012 input values. The uncertain is then calculated as 1.645 x SE, where SE is the standard error (link to Larsen & Svendsen – statistical report). Then make test 1 or 2 from above but using the adjusted mean.

For basins and for country by basins where the ceilings are fulfilled with statistically high certainty it is possible to evaluate how many tonnes of nitrogen and/or phosphorus statistically estimated normalized net inputs in 2012 are below the input ceiling, taking into account statistical uncertainty. This indicates extra (excess) reduction obtained that could be used for accounting reductions in neighboring basins (see "Accounting for extra reduction") and/or could indicated how much inputs could increase without exceeding the input ceilings taking into account the precautionary principle. In tables 5a and 5b it is quantified for the Baltic Sea sub-catchment where extra reductions are obtained by 2012 or where further reduction are needed ("missing reduction") to fulfill MAI, and the corresponding information for each country per basin are in tables 5c to 5p.

Table 5a: Calculation of obtained extra reduction or of missing reduction in net total nitrogen inputs to Baltic Sea sub-basins by 2012 compared with nitrogen nutrient inputs ceilings (in tonnes). The bold numbers in "Extra reduction" row indicates how many tons the total statistical estimated normalized water + airborne nitrogen inputs in 2012 were below the inputs ceiling taking into account statistical uncertainty.  The bottom row is indicating missing reduction to fulfil nutrient input ceilings (MAI) taking into account uncertainty. "-": Input ceiling not fulfilled..

​  ​   BOBBOSBPGUFGURDSKAT
​A : Input ceiling ​ ​​57,62279,372325,000101,80088,41865,99874,001
​B: Estimated input 2012 ​ ​59,03272,857364,152117,67991,22250,15764,288
​C: Inputs 2012 including uncertainty (test value)60,48474,794375,760119,68797,10651,49565,801
​Ext​ra reduction  (A-C)    -4,578---14,5038,200
​Missing reduction to fulfill MAI ​  2,862 50,76017,8878,688  


Table 5b. Calculation of obtained extra reduction or of missing reduction in net total phosphorus inputs to Baltic Sea sub-basins by 2012 compared with phosphorus nutrient inputs ceilings (in tonnes). The bold numbers in "Extra reduction" row indicates how many tons the total statistical estimated normalized water + airborne nitrogen inputs in 2012 were below the inputs ceiling taking into account statistical uncertainty.  The bottom row is indicating missing reduction to fulfil nutrient input ceilings (MAI) taking into account uncertainty. "-": Input ceiling not fulfilled.

 BOBBOSBPGUFGURDSKAT
A : Input ceiling2,6752,7737,3603,6002,0201,6011,687
B: Estimated input 20122,6692,37614,7547,2542,5661,3451,536
C: Inputs 2012 including uncertainty (test value)2,7872,49015,1457,5362,7751,4181,591
Extra reduction  (A-C)-283---18396
Missing reduction to fulfill MAI112 7,7853,936755  


Table 5c. Calculation of obtained extra reduction or missing reductions for Denmark in net total nitrogen (upper) and phosphorus (lower) inputs to Baltic Sea sub-basins by 2012 compared with nitrogen nutrient inputs ceilings (in tonnes). Bold numbers indicates basins where MAI where fulfilled in 2012. See also caption to table 5a.

Denmark TNBOBBOSBAPGUFGURDSKAT
A : Input ceiling23190479103343813031329319
B: Estimated input 201214855868802422452004123267
C: Inputs 2012 including uncertainty (test value)15257370212492522065723631
Extra reduction  (A-C)793318898512996565688
Missing reduction to fulfill MAI       
Denmark TPBOBBOSBAPGUFGURDSKAT
A : Input ceiling211040829
B: Estimated input 201246847695
C: Inputs 2012 including uncertainty (test value)  49  906708
Extra reduction  (A-C)     134121
Missing reduction to fulfill MAI  28    

 

 Table 5d. Calculation of obtained extra reduction or missing reductions for Estonia in net total nitrogen (upper) and phosphorus (lower) inputs to Baltic Sea sub-basins by 2012 compared with nitrogen nutrient inputs ceilings (in tonnes). Bold numbers indicates basins where MAI where fulfilled in 2012. See also caption to table 5a.

Estonia TNBOBBOSBAPGUFGURDSKAT
A : Input ceiling95317141311265130291820
B: Estimated input 201289289145313042121271517
C: Inputs 2012 including uncertainty (test value)91295152213578128591518
Extra reduction  (A-C)422  17032
Missing reduction to fulfill MAI  1092313   
Estonia TPBOBBOSBAPGUFGURDSKAT
A : Input ceiling8236239
B: Estimated input 201223490212
C: Inputs 2012 including uncertainty (test value)  25521236  
Extra reduction  (A-C)    3  
Missing reduction to fulfill MAI  17285   

 

Table 5e. Calculation of obtained extra reduction or missing reductions for Germany in net total nitrogen (upper) and phosphorus (lower) inputs to Baltic Sea sub-basins by 2012 compared with nitrogen nutrient inputs ceilings (in tonnes). Bold numbers indicates basins where MAI where fulfilled in 2012. See also caption to table 5a.

Germany TNBOBBOSBAPGUFGURDSKAT
A : Input ceiling81731702747313121465219573285
B: Estimated input 201262422962946111281097171652772
C: Inputs 2012 including uncertainty (test value)63123233013711421109178252796
Extra reduction  (A-C)186847 1703564132489
Missing reduction to fulfill MAI  2664    
Germany TPBOBBOSBAPGUFGURDSKAT
A : Input ceiling101351
B: Estimated input 2012295309
C: Inputs 2012 including uncertainty (test value)  309  321 
Extra reduction  (A-C)     30 
Missing reduction to fulfill MAI  208    

 

Table 5f. Calculation of obtained extra reduction or missing reductions for Finland in net total nitrogen (upper) and phosphorus (lower) inputs to Baltic Sea sub-basins by 2012 compared with nitrogen nutrient inputs ceilings (in tonnes). Bold numbers indicates basins where MAI where fulfilled in 2012. See also caption to table 5a.

Finland TNBOBBOSBAPGUFGURDSKAT
A : Input ceiling35081296191569206532556477
B: Estimated input 201238017279711409232021783951
C: Inputs 2012 including uncertainty (test value)39325295801441240681824052
Extra reduction  (A-C) 39128 732425
Missing reduction to fulfill MAI4244  3415   
Finla​nd TPBOBBOSBAPGUFGURDSKAT
A : Input ceiling16681255322
B: Estimated input 201216331094704
C: Inputs 2012 including uncertainty (test value)16961173 739   
Extra reduction  (A-C) 82     
Missing reduction to fulfill MAI28  417   

 

Table 5g. Calculation of obtained extra reduction or missing reductions for Latvia in net total nitrogen (upper) and phosphorus (lower) inputs to Baltic Sea sub-basins by 2012 compared with nitrogen nutrient inputs ceilings (in tonnes). Bold numbers indicates basins where MAI where fulfilled in 2012. See also caption to table 5a.

Latvia TNBOBBOSBAPGUFGURDSKAT
A : Input ceiling632736091183538982425
B: Estimated input 2012642728691223558612326
C: Inputs 2012 including uncertainty (test value)652789366229604012326
Extra reduction  (A-C)     1 
Missing reduction to fulfill MAI253275466503 1
Latvia TPBOBBOSBAPGUFGURDSKAT
A : Input ceiling74541
B: Estimated input 2012308846
C: Inputs 2012 including uncertainty (test value)  330 912  
Extra reduction  (A-C)       
Missing reduction to fulfill MAI  256 371  

 

Table 5h. Calculation of obtained extra reduction or missing reductions for Lithuania in net total nitrogen (upper) and phosphorus (lower) inputs to Baltic Sea sub-basins by 2012 compared with nitrogen nutrient inputs ceilings (in tonnes). Bold numbers indicates basins where MAI where fulfilled in 2012. See also caption to table 5a.

Lithuania TNBOBBOSBAPGUFGURDSKAT
A : Input ceiling1104913309326157955460
B: Estimated input 20121064544406829559004757
C: Inputs 2012 including uncertainty (test value)1104744815030863514960
Extra reduction  (A-C) 17   50
Missing reduction to fulfill MAI0 1505747556  
Lithuania TPBOBBOSBAPGUFGURDSKAT
A : Input ceiling831166
B: Estimated input 20121498251
C: Inputs 2012 including uncertainty (test value)  1659 270  
Extra reduction  (A-C)       
Missing reduction to fulfill MAI  828 104  

 

Table 5i. Calculation of obtained extra reduction or missing reductions for Poland in net total nitrogen (upper) and phosphorus (lower) inputs to Baltic Sea sub-basins by 2012 compared with nitrogen nutrient inputs ceilings (in tonnes). Bold numbers indicates basins where MAI where fulfilled in 2012. See also caption to table 5a.

Poland TNBOBBOSBAPGUFGURDSKAT
A : Input ceiling64428021608571166136111251106
B: Estimated input 2012528222017700811051127860926
C: Inputs 2012 including uncertainty (test value)543228318464011371159887953
Extra reduction  (A-C)101519 29202238153
Missing reduction to fulfill MAI  23783    
Poland TPBOBBOSBAPGUFGURDSKAT
A : Input ceiling4309
B: Estimated input 2012009325
C: Inputs 2012 including uncertainty (test value)009680    
Extra reduction  (A-C)00     
Missing reduction to fulfill MAI  5371    

 


Table 5j. Calculation of obtained extra reduction or missing reductions for Russia in net total nitrogen (upper) and phosphorus (lower) inputs to Baltic Sea sub-basins by 2012 compared with nitrogen nutrient inputs ceilings (in tonnes). Bold numbers indicates basins where MAI where fulfilled in 2012. See also caption to table 5a.

Russia TNBOBBOSBAPGUFGURDSKAT
A : Input ceiling71015519253625222516174174
B: Estimated input 2012898187612156718032678205229
C: Inputs 2012 including uncertainty (test value)964201512476729732866219244
Extra reduction  (A-C)       
Missing reduction to fulfill MAI2544643223104513504570
Russia TPBOBBOSBAPGUFGURDSKAT
A : Input ceiling2772892185
B: Estimated input 20127585910281
C: Inputs 2012 including uncertainty (test value)  7586169303  
Extra reduction  (A-C)       
Missing reduction to fulfill MAI  4813277118  

 

Table 5k. Calculation of obtained extra reduction or missing reductions for Sweden in net total nitrogen (upper) and phosphorus (lower) inputs to Baltic Sea sub-basins by 2012 compared with nitrogen nutrient inputs ceilings (in tonnes). Bold numbers indicates basins where MAI where fulfilled in 2012. See also caption to table 5a.

Sweden TNBOBBOSBAPGUFGURDSKAT
A : Input ceiling179243335030942502449622434206
B: Estimated input 2012161462981232838412329412329578
C: Inputs 2012 including uncertainty (test value)165923046233709420335439630809
Extra reduction  (A_C)13322888 8211418283397
Missing reduction to fulfill MAI  2767    
Sweden TPBOBBOSBAPGUFGURDSKAT
A : Input ceiling8261125308105740
B: Estimated input 201285488871985764
C: Inputs 2012 including uncertainty (test value)926949738  89807
Extra reduction  (A-C) 176   16 
Missing reduction to fulfill MAI100 430   67



 Table 5l. Calculation of obtained extra reduction or missing reductions for Baltic Sea shipping in total atmospheric  nitrogen deposition inputs to Baltic Sea sub-basins by 2012 compared with nitrogen nutrient inputs ceilings (in tonnes). Bold numbers indicates basins where MAI where fulfilled in 2012. See also caption to table 5a.

Baltic Sea shipping TNBOBBOSBAPGUFGURDSKAT
A : Input ceiling722921434147112165149
B: Estimated input 201243917428276882665945872
C: Inputs 2012 including uncertainty (test value)44317578350890671954880
Extra reduction  (A-C)       
Missing reduction to fulfill MAI37114656916743559789731

 


Table 5m. Calculation of obtained extra reduction or missing reductions for Belarus in waterborne net nitrogen (upper) and phosphorus (lower) inputs to Baltic Sea sub-basins by 2012 compared with nitrogen nutrient inputs ceilings (in tonnes). Bold numbers indicates basins where MAI where fulfilled in 2012. See also caption to table 5a.

Belarus TNBOBBOSBAPGUFGURDSKAT
A : Input ceiling73226352
B: Estimated input 201278336496
C: Inputs 2012 including uncertainty (test value)  8494 7029  
Extra reduction  (A-C)       
Missing reduction to fulfill MAI  1172 677  
Belarus TPBOBBOSBAPGUFGURDSKAT
A : Input ceiling244797
B: Estimated input 20124591208
C: Inputs 2012 including uncertainty (test value)  488 1302  
Extra reduction  (A-C)       
Missing reduction to fulfill MAI  244 505  

 


Table 5n. Calculation of obtained extra reduction or missing reductions for Czech Republic in waterborne net nitrogen (upper) and phosphorus (lower) inputs to Baltic Sea sub-basins by 2012 compared with nitrogen nutrient inputs ceilings (in tonnes). Bold numbers indicates basins where MAI where fulfilled in 2012. See also caption to table 5a.

Czeck Republic TNBOBBOSBAPGUFGURDSKAT
A : Input ceiling2693
B: Estimated input 20123016
C: Inputs 2012 including uncertainty (test value)  3160    
Extra reduction  (A-C)       
Missing reduction to fulfill MAI  467    
        
Czeck Republic TPBOBBOSBAPGUFGURDSKAT
A : Input ceiling108
B: Estimated input 2012235
C: Inputs 2012 including uncertainty (test value)  244    
Extra reduction  (A-C)       
Missing reduction to fulfill MAI  136    

 

Table 5o. Calculation of obtained extra reduction or missing reductions for Ukraine in waterborne net nitrogen (upper) and phosphorus (lower) inputs to Baltic Sea sub-basins by 2012 compared with nitrogen nutrient inputs ceilings (in tonnes). Bold numbers indicates basins where MAI where fulfilled in 2012. See also caption to table 5a.

Ukraine TNBOBBOSBAPGUFGURDSKAT
A : Input ceiling1948
B: Estimated input 20122182
C: Inputs 2012 including uncertainty (test value)  2286    
Extra reduction  (A-C)       
Missing reduction to fulfill MAI  338    
Ukraine TPBOBBOSBAPGUFGURDSKAT
A : Input ceiling33
B: Estimated input 201273
C: Inputs 2012 including uncertainty (test value)  75    
Extra reduction  (A-C)       
Missing reduction to fulfill MAI  42    

 

Table 5p. Calculation of obtained extra reduction or missing reductions for EU20 and other countries in total atmospheric  nitrogen deposition inputs to Baltic Sea sub-basins by 2012 compared with nitrogen nutrient inputs ceilings (in tonnes). Bold numbers indicates basins where MAI where fulfilled in 2012. See also caption to table 5a.

EU20+OC TNBOBBOSBAPGUFGURDSKAT
A : I​nput ceiling18766603330023455280458805579
B: Estimated input 201220547135368593675304666986498
C: Inputs 2012 including uncertainty (test value)20877257373663753310267546554
Extra reduction  (A-C)       
Missing reduction to fulfill MAI2116544364298298874975