Key message

How much is left to reach the HELCOM nutrient reduction targets set for a clean Baltic Sea?

These are the key results of the preliminary assessment for following-up on progress towards the country-wise allocated reduction targets (CART) for nutrients adopted by the 2013 Copenhagen HELCOM Ministerial Declaration.

CART for nitrogen and phosphorus have been expressed as nutrient input ceilings for each country by sub-basin. Poland accepts the Polish Country Allocated Reduction Targets as indicative due to the ongoing national consultations. Ref. Ministerial Declaration 2013, page 6, footnote 2.

Reductions still needed

Table 1. Total Nitrogen. Evaluation of fulfillment of CART
Based on statistically estimated 2012 inputs (scroll down for full legend).



Table 2.  Total Phosphorus. Evaluation of fulfillment of CART
Based on statistically estimated 2012 inputs

 

Colour legend


*Yellow, orange and red shades: input ceiling is exceeded with 95 % statistical certainty. The legend illustrates the reductions left to the target as estimated in 2012, compared to the net inputs of the same year.


"Other countries" includes sources as the 20 EU countries not being HELCOM Contracting Parties, countries outside EU including Belarus, Czech Republic, Ukraine, North Sea shipping etc.

MAI is the maximum allowable inputs, according to the 2013 HELCOM Ministerial Declaration.

For reviewing the input data used to evaluate fulfillment of CART and the amount of remaining reductions, please see the data page (tables 5a-5p).

Conclusions

Based on estimation of normalized inputs of nitrogen and phosphorus from 1995 to 2012 (Tables 1 and 2) the following conclusion can be made with high statistical certainty:

Fulfillment of nitrogen input ceilings:

  • Denmark fulfilled nitrogen ceilings to all HELCOM sub-basins
  • Germany and Sweden met their nitrogen ceilings to all HELCOM basins except to the Baltic Proper
  • Russian exceeded their ceilings to all sub-basins
  • Finland increased its nitrogen inputs to Bothnian Bay
  • Total nitrogen inputs to Bothnian Sea, Danish Straits and Kattegat were below the input ceilings
  • Atmospheric nitrogen inputs from Baltic Sea shipping and Non-HELCOM countries exceeded their expected  levels  to all sub-basin

Trends in nitrogen inputs:

  • Since the reference period (1997-2003) the overall inputs of nitrogen to the Baltic Sea decreased with 9%
  • Denmark, Germany, Poland, and Sweden have reduced their total nitrogen inputs to all HELCOM sub-basins
  • Non-HELCOM countries reduced their total nitrogen inputs to all HELCOM sub-basins
  • Significant reduction in nitrogen input is achieved by reduced water and airborne inputs from land-based sources
  • Nitrogen inputs from Baltic Sea shipping increased

Fulfillment of phosphorus input ceilings:

  • Countries with waterborne phosphorus inputs to Baltic Proper and Gulf of Finland  exceeded their ceiling to these sub-basins
  • Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Russian exceeded their ceilings to the sub-basins to which they have waterborne phosphorus inputs
  • Total phosphorus inputs to Bothnian Sea, Danish Straits and Kattegat were below the input ceiling

Trends in phosphorus inputs:

  • Since the reference period (1997-2003) the overall inputs of phosphorus to the Baltic Sea decreased by 14%
  • Denmark and Poland reduced their total phosphorus inputs to the sub-basins to which they have waterborne inputs
  • Reduction in phosphorus input is achieved by reduced waterborne inputs from land-based sources
  • Latvia has increased phosphorus inputs to Baltic Proper and Gulf of Riga
  • Inputs of phosphorus from Belarus to Gulf of Riga increased