KEY MESSAGE

Maximum Allowable Inputs (MAI) of nutrients are a part of the HELCOM nutrient reduction scheme, indicating the maximal level of total (water- and air born) input of nitrogen and phosphorus to the Baltic Sea sub-basins (map layer for nitrogen and phosphorus at the HELCOM map service) that is allowed to fulfil the targets for the sea unaffected by eutrophication. The targets were first included into the Baltic Sea Action Plan in 2007 and then updated in the Copenhagen Ministerial Declaration in 2013. Input of nutrients is one of HELCOM core pressure indicators.

The current assessment of progress towards MAI of nitrogen and phosphorus is based on data on normalized average total input to the sub-basins of the Baltic Sea during 2012-2015. The fulfilment of MAI is identified by comparing the total input to a particular sub-basin with the Maximum Allowable Input for that sub-basin. The progress achieved by 2015 is given in percentages of MAI where values below 100% indicate fulfilling the requirements of the HELCOM nutrient reduction scheme.

A significant reduction of nutrients input has been achieved for the whole Baltic Sea. This assessment shows that the normalized input of nitrogen was reduced by 12% and phosphorus by 25% between the reference period (1997-2003) and 2015 (Core pressure indicator on nutrient inputs, figure 1). The maximum allowable input (MAI) of nitrogen in this period was fulfilled in the Kattegat, Danish Straits, Bothnian Bay and Bothnian Sea (Results tables). Nitrogen input into the Gulf of Riga is below MAI but cannot be considered as fulfilled due to statistical uncertainty. MAI for phosphorus input is fulfilled in the Kattegat, Danish Straits and Bothnian Sea. The inputs to the Gulf of Finland and Bothnian Bay are below MAI but cannot be considered as fulfilled due to statistical uncertainty.

Results tables. The trend-based estimate for normalized annual inputs of (a) nitrogen and (b) phosphorus during 2015.

The table also contains data on statistical uncertainty, the remaining reduction needed to reach MAI and inputs in 2015 including statistical uncertainty in percentages of MAI. Classification of achieving MAI is given in colours: green=MAI fulfilled, yellow= fulfilment is not determined due to statistical uncertainty, and red=MAI not fulfilled. (Units in columns 2-5: tonnes per year).NOTE: For consistency with MAI no rounding (to tenth, hundreds or thousands) has been performed in the indicator.

a) Nitrogen

b) Phosphorus

*As adopted by the 2013 HELCOM Copenhagen Ministerial Meeting (HELCOM 2013a)

**Exceedance of MAI is caused by statistical data uncertainty.

The detailed description of the indicator including data on air- and water born input as well as long term trends of inputs since the mid-1990s is given in the relevant sections of the HELCOM core pressure indicator on nutrient inputs report.