Review of the ecological targets for eutrophication of the HELCOM BSAP (HELCOM TARGREV) (2010-2011)

Background

This project aims at strengthening the scientific basis of the ecological targets for eutrophication of the HELCOM BSAP. The results of this project, i.e. the preliminary eutrophication targets, will be submitted to the decision making process of the HELCOM Contracting Parties. The final targets adopted by the HELCOM Contracting Parties will be used for reviewing, and if necessary revising, the maximum allowable nutrient inputs of the BSAP and the country wise nutrient reduction allocation schemes. The scientific advice for the latter two parts of the BSAP update will be coordinated by the Swedish BNI team. Those HELCOM Contracting Parties that are also EU member states will be able to make use of the targets in the implementation of the MSFD in the Baltic Sea, especially in fulfilling the tasks related to setting targets for Good Environmental Status related to eutrophication (descriptor 5 of Annex III of the directive).

HELCOM has defined 5 ecological objectives for eutrophication: concentrations of nutrients close to natural levels, clear water, natural level of algal blooms, natural distribution of plants and animals, natural oxygen levels.

These objectives are transformed into quantitative values  for specific indicators representing the different objectives (ecological targets). There is a need to review, revise and harmonise the existing preliminary ecological targets within the Baltic Sea. The objective of this project is to strengthen the scientific support for the ecological target setting.

Activities

This project will largely build upon the previous HELCOM projects and activities that have resulted in e.g. the integrated thematic assessment of eutrophication.

The project is divided into 4 Work Packages:

• WP1: Project management and data collation

• WP2: Statistical analyses of trends and pressure-response relationships

• WP3: Simulations studies using mechanistic models

• WP4: Synthesis for target setting

The idea behind this organisation is to establish a common data basis for two modelling approaches that can be used as a basis for proposing targets for four of the five ecological objectives. 

WP1 will manage the data sources to be used in this project and carry out the overall project coordination activities including communication with HELCOM. The data collection will build upon the existing work carried out in the HELCOM EUTRO-PRO project.

WP2 will establish historical trends using contemporary monitoring data to establish empirical relationships between indicators and monitoring data, and employ these relationships to hindcast indicator values for different ecological objectives. Previous studies with the same objectives have not fully accounted for all the different sources of variations underlying the monitoring data. The statistical analyses will aim at resolving spatial, seasonal, inter-annual variations and sampling conditions, and link these to climate, nutrient inputs and fishing pressure as forcing factors. This work will build upon the experiences from HELCOM EUTRO-PRO and other related projects.

WP3 will simulate a number of selected scenarios for different nutrient inputs, fishing pressure and climate using 3 different models. This work will be coordinated with the activities to be carried out to reviewing the maximum allowable nutrient inputs of the BSAP led by the Swedish BNI team.

WP4 will identify suitable scenarios for WP2 and WP3, and compare the results from these WPs to suggest the most probable historical conditions for the indicators of HELCOMs ecological objectives as well as suggesting probably future conditions given changes in the Baltic Sea ecosystem forcing.

Expected outcome 

Main expected outcomes will be:

• a selection of indicators to characterise HELCOM EcoOs for eutrophication

• hindcast estimates of historical values for the selected indicators

• predicted values for the selected indicators given scenarios of nutrient inputs and fishing pressure

• identification of critical values where drastic changes in EcoOs may occur

• recommendations for setting target values for the selected indicators

Contacts:

Professional Secretary
Ms. Maria Laamanen
Phone: +358 46 850 9198
Fax: +358 (0) 207 412 645
Email: maria.laamanen@helcom.fi

Project Coordinator
(HELCOM TARGREV)
Mr. Jacob Carstensen
Phone: +45 46301345
Fax: +45 46301114
Email: jac@dmu.dk